What is the impact of hospital and surgeon volumes on outcomes in rectal cancer surgery?

AIM: Evidence for a positive volume-outcome relationship for rectal cancer surgery is unclear. This study aims to evaluate the volume-outcome relationship for rectal cancer surgery at hospital and surgeon level in the English National Health Service (NHS). METHOD: All patients undergoing a rectal cancer resection in the English NHS between 2015 and 2019 were included. Multilevel multivariable logistic regression was used to model relationships between outcomes and mean annual hospital and surgeon volumes (using a linear plus a quadratic term for volume) with adjustment for patient characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 13 858 patients treated in 166 hospitals were included. Six hospitals (3.6%) performed fewer than 10 rectal cancer resections per year, and 381 surgeons (45.0%) performed fewer than five such resections per year. Patients treated by high-volume surgeons had a reduced length of stay (p = 0.016). No statistically significant volume-outcome relationships were demonstrated for 90-day mortality, 30-day unplanned readmission, unplanned return to theatre, stoma at 18 months following anterior resection, positive circumferential resection margin and 2-year all-cause mortality at either hospital or surgeon level (p values > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Almost half of colorectal surgeons in England do not meet national guidelines for rectal cancer surgeons to perform a minimum of five major resections annually. However, our results suggest that centralizing rectal cancer surgery with the main focus of increasing operative volume may have limited impact on NHS surgical outcomes. Therefore, quality improvement initiatives should address a wider range of evidence-based process measures, across the multidisciplinary care pathway, to enhance outcomes for patients with rectal cancer.

Sustained increases in antibiotic prescriptions per primary care consultation for upper respiratory tract infections in England during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: The responsible use of existing antimicrobials is essential in reducing the threat posed by antimicrobial resistance (AMR). With the introduction of restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic, a substantial reduction in face-to-face appointments in general practice was observed. To understand if this shift in healthcare provision has impacted on prescribing practices, we investigated antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) consultations. Methods: We conducted an interrupted time-series analysis using patient-level primary care data to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consultations and antibiotic prescribing for URTI in England. Results: We estimated an increase of 105.7 antibiotic items per 1000 URTI consultations (95% CI: 65.6-145.8; P < 0.001) after national lockdown measures in March 2020, with increases mostly sustained to May 2022. Conclusions: Overuse of antibiotics is known to be a driver of resistance and it is essential that efforts to reduce inappropriate prescribing continue subsequent to the COVID-19 pandemic. Further work should examine drivers of increased antibiotic prescribing for URTI to inform the development of targeted antibiotic stewardship interventions.

A low prostate specific antigen predicts a worse outcome in high but not in low/intermediate-grade prostate cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The relationship between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and prostate cancer (PCa) grade was traditionally thought to be linear but recent reports suggest this is not true in high-grade cancers. We aimed to compare the association between PSA and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM) in clinically localised low/intermediate and high-grade PCa. SUBJECTS/PATIENTS AND METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using the National Prostate Cancer Audit database in England of men treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT), EBRT and brachytherapy boost (EBRT + BT), radical prostatectomy or no radical local treatment between 2014 and 2018. Multivariable competing-risk regression was used to examine the association between PSA, Gleason, and PCSM. Multivariable restricted cubic spline regression was used to explore the non-linear associations of PSA and PCSM. RESULTS: 102,089 men were included, of whom 71,138 had low/intermediate-grade and 22,425 had high-grade PCa. In high-grade, 4-year PCSM was higher with PSA ≤5 than PSA 5.1-10 for men treated with EBRT (hazard ratio 1.96 (95% confidence interval 1.15-3.34) or no radical local treatment (hazard ratio 1.99 (95% confidence interval 1.33-2.98). Restricted cubic spline regression showed that PSA and PCSM have a non-linear association in high-grade but a linear association in low/intermediate-grade PCa. CONCLUSION: The low-PSA/high-grade combination in M0 PCa treated with EBRT has a higher PCSM than those with high-grade and intermediate PSA levels. In high-grade disease, the PSA association was non-linear; by contrast, low/intermediate-grade had a linear relationship. This confirms a more aggressive biology in low PSA secreting high-grade PCa and a worse outcome following treatment.

Hospital volume and outcomes after radical prostatectomy: a national population-based study using patient-reported urinary continence and sexual function.

BACKGROUND: Improvements in short-term outcomes have been reported for hospitals with higher radical prostatectomy (RP) volumes. However, the association with longer-term functional outcomes is unknown. METHODS: All patients diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer in the English NHS between 2014 and 2016 who underwent RP (N = 10,089) were mailed a survey ≥18 months after diagnosis. Differences in patient-reported urinary continence and sexual function (EPIC-26 on scale from 0 to 100) by hospital volume group (≤60, 61-100, 101-140, >140 RPs/year) were estimated using multilevel linear regression. RESULTS: Overall, 7702 men (76.3%) responded. There were no statistically significant differences in urinary continence (p = 0.08) or sexual function scores with increasing volume group (p = 0.2). When modelled as a linear function, we found a non-significant increase of 0.70 (95% CI -0.41 to 1.80; p = 0.22) in urinary continence and a significant increase of 1.54 (0.62-2.45; p = 0.001) in sexual function scores for a 100-procedure increase in hospital volume, which did not meet the threshold for a minimal clinically important difference (10-12 points). The results were similar for robotic-assisted RP (5529 men [71.8%]). CONCLUSIONS: These results do not support further centralisation of RP services beyond levels in England where four in five hospitals perform >60 RPs/year.

Measuring variation in the quality of systemic anti-cancer therapy delivery across hospitals: A national population-based evaluation.

AIM: To date, there has been little systematic assessment of the quality of care associated with systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) delivery across national healthcare systems. We evaluated hospital-level toxicity rates during SACT treatment as a means of identifying variation in care quality. METHODS: All colorectal cancer (CRC) patients receiving SACT within 106 English National Health Service (NHS) hospitals between 2016 and 2019 were included. Severe acute toxicity rates were derived from hospital administrative data using a validated coding framework. Variation in hospital-level toxicity rates was assessed separately in the adjuvant and metastatic settings. Toxicity rates were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidity, performance status, tumour site, and TNM staging. RESULTS: Eight thousand one hundred and seventy three patients received SACT in the adjuvant setting, and 7,683 patients in the metastatic setting. Adjusted severe acute toxicity rates varied between hospitals from 11% to 49% for the adjuvant cohort, and from 25% to 67% for the metastatic cohort. Compared to the national mean toxicity rate in the adjuvant cohort, six hospitals were more than two standard deviations (2SD) above, and four hospitals were more than 2SD below. In the metastatic cohort, six hospitals were more than 2SD above, and seven hospitals were more than 2SD below the national mean toxicity rate. Overall, 12 hospitals (12%) had toxicity rates more than 2SD above the national mean, and 11 (10%) had rates more than 2SD below. CONCLUSION: There is substantial variation in hospital-level severe acute toxicity rates in both the adjuvant and metastatic settings, despite risk-adjustment. Ongoing reporting of this performance indicator can be used to focus further investigation of toxicity rates and stimulate quality improvement initiatives to improve care.

Development and validation of a coding framework to identify severe acute toxicity from systemic anti-cancer therapy using hospital administrative data.

BACKGROUND: The capture of toxicities from systemic anti-cancer therapy (SACT) in real-world data will complement results from clinical trials. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a comprehensive coding framework to identify severe acute toxicity in hospital administrative data. METHODS: A coding framework was developed to identify diagnostic codes representing severe acute toxicity in hospital administrative data. The coding framework was validated on a sample of 23,265 colon cancer patients treated in the English National Health Service between 1 June 2014 and 31 December 2017. This involved comparing individual toxicities according to the receipt of SACT and according to different SACT regimens, as well as assessing the associations of predictive factors and outcomes with toxicity. RESULTS: The severe acute toxicities captured by the developed coding framework were shown to vary across clinical groups with an overall rate of 26.4% in the adjuvant cohort, 53.4% in the metastatic cohort, and 12.5% in the comparison group receiving no chemotherapy. Results were in line with regimen-specific findings from clinical trials. For example, patients receiving additional bevacizumab had higher rates of bleeding (12.5% vs. 2.7%), gastrointestinal perforation (5.6% vs. 2.9%) and fistulation (1.4% vs. 0.5%), and allergic drug reactions (1.4% vs. 0.5%). Severe acute toxicity was associated with pre-existing renal (p = 0.001) and cardiac disease (p = 0.038), and urgency of surgery (p = 0.004). Severe toxicity also predicted lower rates of completion of chemotherapy (p = <0.001) and an increased likelihood of altered administration route (p = <0.001). CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate that the developed coding framework captures severe acute toxicities from hospital administrative data of colon cancer patients. A similar approach can be used for patients with other cancer types, receiving different regimens. Toxicity captured in administrative data can be used to compare treatment outcomes, inform clinical decision making, and provide opportunities for benchmarking and provider performance monitoring.

Urinary incontinence and use of incontinence surgery after radical prostatectomy: a national study using patient-reported outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate whether patient-reported urinary incontinence (UI) and bother scores after radical prostatectomy (RP) result in subsequent intervention with UI surgery. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Men diagnosed with prostate cancer in the English National Health Service between April 2014 and January 2016 were identified. Administrative data were used to identify men who had undergone a RP and those who subsequently underwent a UI procedure. The National Prostate Cancer Audit database was used to identify men who had also completed a post-treatment survey. These surveys included the Expanded Prostate Cancer Composite Index (EPIC-26). The frequency of subsequent UI procedures, within 6 months of the survey, was explored according to EPIC-26 UI scores. The relationship between 'good' (≥75) or 'bad' (≤25) EPIC-26 UI scores and perceptions of urinary bother was also explored (responses ranging from 'no problem' to 'big problem' with respect to their urinary function). RESULTS: We identified 11 290 men who had undergone a RP. The 3-year cumulative incidence of UI surgery was 2.5%. After exclusions, we identified 5165 men who had also completed a post-treatment survey after a median time of 19 months (response rate 74%). A total of 481 men (9.3%) reported a 'bad' UI score and 207 men (4.0%) also reported that they had a big problem with their urinary function. In all, 47 men went on to have UI surgery within 6 months of survey completion (0.9%), of whom 93.6% had a bad UI score. Of the 71 men with the worst UI score (zero), only 11 men (15.5%) subsequently had UI surgery. CONCLUSION: In England, there is a significant number of men living with severe, bothersome UI after RP, and an unmet clinical need for UI surgery. The systematic collection of patient-reported outcomes could be used to identify men who may benefit from UI surgery.

Survival outcomes associated with completion of adjuvant oxaliplatin-based chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer: A national population-based study.

The impact of cycle completion rates of oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy for stage III colon cancer in real-world practice is unknown. We assessed its impact, and that of treatment modification, on 3-year cancer-specific mortality. Four thousand one hundred and forty-seven patients with pathological stage III colon cancer undergoing major resection from 2014 to 2017 in the English National Health Service were included. Chemotherapy data came from linked national administrative datasets. Competing risk regression analysis for 3-year cancer-specific mortality was performed according to completion of <6, 6-11, or 12 5-fluoropyrimidine and oxaliplatin (FOLFOX) cycles, or <4, 4-7, or 8 capecitabine and oxaliplatin (CAPOX) cycles, adjusted for patient, tumour and hospital-level characteristics. Median age was 64 years. Thirty-two per cent of patients had at least one comorbidity. Forty-two per cent of patients had T4 disease, and 40% had N2 disease. Compared to completion of 12 FOLFOX cycles, cancer-specific mortality was higher in patients completing <6 cycles [subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR) 2.17; 95% CI 1.56-3.03] or 6-11 cycles (sHR 1.40; 95% CI 1.09-1.78) (P < .001). Compared to completion of 8 CAPOX cycles, cancer-specific mortality was higher in patients completing <4 cycles (sHR 2.02; 95% CI 1.53-2.67) or 4-7 cycles (sHR 1.63; 95% CI 1.27-2.10) (P < .001). Dose reduction and early oxaliplatin discontinuation did not impact mortality in patients completing all cycles. Completion of all cycles of chemotherapy was associated with improved cancer-specific survival in real-world practice. Poor prognostic factors may have affected findings, however, patients completing <50% of cycles had poor outcomes. Clinicians may wish to facilitate completion with treatment modification in those able to tolerate it.

National time trends in mortality and graft survival following liver transplantation from circulatory death or brainstem death donors.

BACKGROUND: Despite high waiting list mortality rates, concern still exists on the appropriateness of using livers donated after circulatory death (DCD). We compared mortality and graft loss in recipients of livers donated after circulatory or brainstem death (DBD) across two successive time periods. METHODS: Observational multinational data from the United Kingdom and Ireland were partitioned into two time periods (2008-2011 and 2012-2016). Cox regression methods were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the impact of periods on post-transplant mortality and graft failure. RESULTS: A total of 1176 DCD recipients and 3749 DBD recipients were included. Three-year patient mortality rates decreased markedly from 19.6 per cent in time period 1 to 10.4 per cent in time period 2 (adjusted HR 0.43, 95 per cent c.i. 0.30 to 0.62; P < 0.001) for DCD recipients but only decreased from 12.8 to 11.3 per cent (adjusted HR 0.96, 95 per cent c.i. 0.78 to 1.19; P = 0.732) in DBD recipients (P for interaction = 0.001). No time period-specific improvements in 3-year graft failure were observed for DCD (adjusted HR 0.80, 95% c.i. 0.61 to 1.05; P = 0.116) or DBD recipients (adjusted HR 0.95, 95% c.i. 0.79 to 1.14; P = 0.607). A slight increase in retransplantation rates occurred between time period 1 and 2 in those who received a DCD liver (from 7.3 to 11.8 per cent; P = 0.042), but there was no change in those receiving a DBD liver (from 4.9 to 4.5 per cent; P = 0.365). In time period 2, no difference in mortality rates between those receiving a DCD liver and those receiving a DBD liver was observed (adjusted HR 0.78, 95% c.i. 0.56 to 1.09; P = 0.142). CONCLUSION: Mortality rates more than halved in recipients of a DCD liver over a decade and eventually compared similarly to mortality rates in recipients of a DBD liver. Regions with high waiting list mortality may mitigate this by use of DCD livers.

Validity of chemotherapy information derived from routinely collected healthcare data: A national cohort study of colon cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: We used a structured approach to validate chemotherapy information derived from a national routinely collected chemotherapy dataset and from national administrative hospital data. METHODS: 10,280 patients who had surgical resection with stage III colon cancer were included. First, we compared information derived from the national chemotherapy dataset (SACT) and from the administrative hospital dataset (HES) in the English NHS with respect to receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT). Second, we compared regimen and number of cycles in linked patient-level records. Third, we carried out a sensitivity analysis to establish to what extent the impact of ACT receipt differed according to data source. RESULTS: 6,012 patients (58 %) received ACT according to either dataset. Of these patients, 3,460 (58 %) had ACT records in both datasets, 1,649 (27 %) in SACT alone, and 903 (15 %) in HES alone. Of the 3,460 patients with records in both datasets, 3,320 (96 %) had matching regimens. There was good agreement on cycle number with similar proportions of patients recorded with a single cycle (6 % in SACT vs. 7 % in HES) and slightly fewer patients recorded with more than 8 cycles in SACT (32 % in SACT vs. 35 % in HES). 3-year cancer-specific mortality was similar for patients receiving ACT, regardless of whether a patient received ACT according to SACT alone (16.6 %), according to HES alone (16.8 %), or according to either SACT or HES (17.1 %). CONCLUSION: Routinely collected national chemotherapy data and administrative hospital data are highly accurate in recording regimen and number of chemotherapy cycles. However, chemotherapy information should ideally be captured from both datasets to avoid under-capture, particularly of oral chemotherapy from administrative hospital data, and to minimise bias.

Patient-reported functional outcomes following external beam radiation therapy for prostate cancer with and without a high-dose rate brachytherapy boost: A national population-based study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Little is known about the functional outcomes and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) following external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) combined with a high-dose rate brachytherapy boost (EBRT-BB) for the treatment of prostate cancer. We aimed to compare patient-reported outcomes of EBRT to those of EBRT-BB. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients diagnosed with intermediate-risk, high-risk or locally advanced prostate cancer (April 2014 to September 2016), who received EBRT in the English National Health Service within 18 months of diagnosis and responded to a national patient questionnaire, were identified from the National Prostate Cancer Audit. Adjusted linear regression was used to estimate differences in functional EPIC-26 domains and HRQoL (EQ-5D-5L) between treatment groups. Non-inferiority of EBRT-BB was determined if the lower 95% confidence limit did not exceed the established minimal clinically important difference (MCID). RESULTS: Of the 13,259 included men, 12,503 (94.3%) received EBRT and 756 (5.7%) received EBRT-BB. EBRT-BB was non-inferior compared to EBRT for the urinary incontinence, sexual, bowel and hormonal EPIC-26 domains. EBRT-BB resulted in significantly worse urinary irritation/obstruction scores than EBRT (-6.1; 95% CI: -8.8 to -3.4) but uncertainty remains as to whether this difference is clinically important (corresponding MCID of 5). CONCLUSIONS: There is no evidence to suggest that EBRT-BB results in any clinically important detriment in functional outcomes or HRQoL compared to men receiving EBRT only. Whilst statistically significantly worse urinary irritation/obstruction outcomes were reported in the EBRT-BB cohort, the threshold for a clinically significant difference was not exceeded and further research is required for confirmation.

The Impact of Performance Status on Length of Hospital Stay and Clinical Complications Following Liver Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Impaired pretransplant performance status (PS) is associated with chronic liver disease (CLD). We studied its impact on hospital length of stay (LOS), complications, and readmissions in the first year after liver transplantation. METHODS: The Standard National Liver Transplant Registry was linked to a hospital administrative dataset, and all first-time liver transplant recipients with CLD aged ≥18 years in England were identified. A modified 3-level Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score was used to assess PS. Linear- and logistic-fixed effect regression models were used to estimate the effect of specific posttransplant complications and readmissions in the first year after transplantation. RESULTS: Six thousand nine hundred sixty-eight recipients were included. Impaired PS was associated with an increased LOS in the initial posttransplant period (comparing ECOG 1-3, adjusted difference 7.2 d; 95% confidence [CI], 4.8-9.6; P < 0.001) and in time spent on the ITU (adjusted difference 1.2 d; 95% CI, 0.4-2.0; P < 0.001). There was no significant association between ECOG status and total LOS of later admissions (adjusted difference, 2.5 d; 95% CI, -0.4-5.5; P = 0.23). Those with a poorer ECOG status had an increased incidence of renal failure (odds ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.0; P = 0.004) and infection (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.4; P = 0.02) but not an increased incidence of readmission (odds ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 0.9-1.5; P = 0.13). CONCLUSIONS: In liver transplant recipients with CLD, impaired pretransplant PS is associated with prolonged LOS in the immediate posttransplant period but not with LOS of later admissions in the first year after transplantation. Impaired PS increased the risk of renal failure and infection.

Impact of High-Dose-Rate and Low-Dose-Rate Brachytherapy Boost on Toxicity, Functional and Cancer Outcomes in Patients Receiving External Beam Radiation Therapy for Prostate Cancer: A National Population-Based Study.

PURPOSE: External beam radiation therapy (EBRT) with brachytherapy boost reduces cancer recurrence in patients with prostate cancer compared with EBRT monotherapy. However, randomized controlled trials or large-scale observational studies have not compared brachytherapy boost types directly. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This observational cohort study used linked national cancer registry data, radiation therapy data, administrative hospital data, and mortality records of 54,642 patients with intermediate-risk, high-risk, and locally advanced prostate cancer in England. The records of 11,676 patients were also linked to results from a national patient survey collected at least 18 months after diagnosis. Competing risk regression analyses were used to compare gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity, genitourinary (GU) toxicity, skeletal-related events (SRE), and prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM) at 5 years with adjustment for patient and tumor characteristics. Linear regression was used to compare Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite 26-item version domain scores (scale, 0-100, with higher scores indicating better function). RESULTS: Five-year GI toxicity was significantly increased after low-dose-rate brachytherapy boost (LDR-BB) (32.3%) compared with high-dose-rate brachytherapy boost (HDR-BB) (16.7%) or EBRT monotherapy (18.7%). Five-year GU toxicity was significantly increased after both LDR-BB (15.8%) and HDR-BB (16.6%), compared with EBRT monotherapy (10.4%). These toxicity patterns were matched by the mean patient-reported bowel function scores (LDR-BB, 77.3; HDR-BB, 85.8; EBRT monotherapy, 84.4) and the mean patient-reported urinary obstruction/irritation function scores (LDR-BB, 72.2; HDR-BB, 78.9; EBRT monotherapy, 83.8). Five-year incidences of SREs and PCSM were significantly lower after HDR-BB (2.4% and 2.7%, respectively) compared with EBRT monotherapy (2.8% and 3.5%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with EBRT monotherapy, LDR-BB has worse GI and GU toxicity and HDR-BB has worse GU toxicity. HDR-BB has a lower incidence of SREs and PCSM than EBRT monotherapy.

Logistic regression and machine learning predicted patient mortality from large sets of diagnosis codes comparably.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to compare the performance of logistic regression and boosted trees for predicting patient mortality from large sets of diagnosis codes in electronic healthcare records. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We analyzed national hospital records and official death records for patients with myocardial infarction (n = 200,119), hip fracture (n = 169,646), or colorectal cancer surgery (n = 56,515) in England in 2015-2017. One-year mortality was predicted from patient age, sex, and socioeconomic status, and 202 to 257 International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes recorded in the preceding year or not (binary predictors). Performance measures included the c-statistic, scaled Brier score, and several measures of calibration. RESULTS: One-year mortality was 17.2% (34,520) after myocardial infarction, 27.2% (46,115) after hip fracture, and 9.3% (5,273) after colorectal surgery. Optimism-adjusted c-statistics for the logistic regression models were 0.884 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.882, 0.886), 0.798 (0.796, 0.800), and 0.811 (0.805, 0.817). The equivalent c-statistics for the boosted tree models were 0.891 (95% CI: 0.889, 0.892), 0.804 (0.802, 0.806), and 0.803 (0.797, 0.809). Model performance was also similar when measured using scaled Brier scores. All models were well calibrated overall. CONCLUSION: In large datasets of electronic healthcare records, logistic regression and boosted tree models of numerous diagnosis codes predicted patient mortality comparably.

A novel approach selected small sets of diagnosis codes with high prediction performance in large healthcare datasets.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study was to examine an approach for selecting small sets of diagnosis codes with high prediction performance in large datasets of electronic medical records. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: This was a modeling study using national hospital and mortality records for patients with myocardial infarction (n = 200,119), hip fracture (n = 169,646), or colorectal cancer surgery (n = 56,515) in England in 2015-2017. One-year mortality was predicted from ICD-10 codes recorded for at least 0.5% of patients using logistic regression ('full' models). An approximation method was used to select fewer codes that explained at least 95% of variation in full model predictions ('reduced' models). RESULTS: One-year mortality was 17.2% (34,520) after myocardial infarction, 27.2% (46,115) after hip fracture, and 9.3% (5,273) after colorectal surgery. Full models included 202, 257, and 209 ICD-10 codes in these populations. C-statistics for these models were 0.884 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.882, 0.886), 0.798 (0.795, 0.800), and 0.810 (0.804, 0.817). Reduced models included 18, 33, and 41 codes and had c-statistics of 0.874 (95% CI 0.872, 0.876), 0.791 (0.788, 0.793), and 0.807 (0.801, 0.813). Performance was also similar when measured using Brier scores. All models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: Our approach selected small sets of diagnosis codes that predicted patient outcomes comparably to large, comprehensive sets of codes.

One-year mortality of colorectal cancer patients: development and validation of a prediction model using linked national electronic data.

BACKGROUND: The existing literature does not provide a prediction model for mortality of all colorectal cancer patients using contemporary national hospital data. We developed and validated such a model to predict colorectal cancer death within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. METHODS: Cohort study using linked national cancer and death records. The development population included 27,480 patients diagnosed in England in 2015. The test populations were diagnosed in England in 2016 (n = 26,411) and Wales in 2015-2016 (n = 3814). Predictors were age, gender, socioeconomic status, referral source, performance status, tumour site, TNM stage and treatment intent. Cox regression models were assessed using Brier scores, c-indices and calibration plots. RESULTS: In the development population, 7.4, 11.7 and 17.9% of patients died from colorectal cancer within 90, 180 and 365 days after diagnosis. T4 versus T1 tumour stage had the largest adjusted association with the outcome (HR 4.67; 95% CI: 3.59-6.09). C-indices were 0.873-0.890 (England) and 0.856-0.873 (Wales) in the test populations, indicating excellent separation of predicted risks by outcome status. Models were generally well calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: The model was valid for predicting short-term colorectal cancer mortality. It can provide personalised information to support clinical practice and research.

Toxicity of Pelvic Lymph Node Irradiation With Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for High-Risk and Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer: A National Population-Based Study Using Patient-Reported Outcomes.

PURPOSE: Little is known about the toxicity of additional pelvic lymph node irradiation in men receiving intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) for prostate cancer. The aim of this study was to compare patient-reported outcomes after IMRT to the prostate only (PO-IMRT) versus the prostate and pelvic lymph nodes (PPLN-IMRT). METHODS AND MATERIALS: Patients who received a diagnosis of high-risk or locally advanced prostate cancer in the English National Health Service between April 2014 and September 2016 who were treated with IMRT were mailed a questionnaire at least 18 months after diagnosis. Patient-reported urinary, sexual, bowel, and hormonal functional domains on a scale from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better outcomes, and generic health-related quality of life were collected using the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite 26-item version and EQ-5D-5L. We used linear regression to compare PPLN-IMRT versus PO-IMRT with adjustment for patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. RESULTS: Of the 7017 men who received a questionnaire, 5468 (77.9%) responded; 4196 (76.7%) had received PO-IMRT and 1272 (23.3%) PPLN-IMRT. Adjusted differences in the Expanded Prostate Cancer Index Composite 26-item version domain scores were smaller than 1 (P always >.2), except for sexual function, with men who had PPNL-IMRT reporting a lower mean score (adjusted difference, 2.3; 95% confidence interval, 0.9-3.7; P = .002). This did not represent a clinically relevant difference. There was no significant difference in health-related quality of life (P = .5). CONCLUSIONS: Additional pelvic lymph node irradiation does not lead to clinically meaningful increases in the toxicity of IMRT for prostate cancer according to patient-reported functional outcomes and health-related quality of life.

Rural and urban differences in health system performance among older Chinese adults: cross-sectional analysis of a national sample.

BACKGROUND: Despite improvement in health outcomes over the past few decades, China still experiences striking rural-urban health inequalities. There is limited research on the rural-urban differences in health system performance in China. METHOD: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to compare health system performance between rural and urban areas in five key domains of the health system: effectiveness, cost, access, patient-centredness and equity, using data from the WHO Study on Global AGEing and adult health (SAGE), China. Multiple logistic and linear regression models were used to assess the first four domains, adjusting for individual characteristics, and a relative index of inequality (RII) was used to measure the equity domain. FINDINGS: Compared to urban areas, rural areas had poorer performance in the management and control of hypertension and diabetes, with more than 50% lower odds of having breast (AOR = 0.44; 95% CI: 0.30, 0.64) and cervical cancer screening (AOR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.29, 0.83). There was better performance in rural areas in the patient-centredness domain, with more than twice higher odds of getting prompt attention, respect, clarity of the communication with health provider and involvement in decision making of the treatment in inpatient care (AOR = 2.56, 2.15, 2.28, 2.28). Although rural residents incurred relatively less out-of-pocket expenditures (OOPE) for outpatient and inpatient services than urban residents, they were more likely to incur catastrophic expenditures on health (AOR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.16, 1.44). Wealth inequality was found in many indicators related to the effectiveness, costs and access domains in both rural and urban areas. Rural areas had greater inequalities in the management of hypertension and coverage of cervical cancer (RII = 7.45 vs 1.64). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that urban areas have achieved better prevention and management of non-communicable disease than rural areas, but access to healthcare was equivalent. A better understanding of the causes of the observed variations is needed to develop appropriate policy interventions which address these disparities.

Physical multimorbidity, health service use, and catastrophic health expenditure by socioeconomic groups in China: an analysis of population-based panel data.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity, the presence of two or more mental or physical chronic non-communicable diseases, is a major challenge for the health system in China, which faces unprecedented ageing of its population. Here we examined the distribution of physical multimorbidity in relation to socioeconomic status; the association between physical multimorbidity, health-care service use, and catastrophic health expenditures; and whether these associations varied by socioeconomic group and social health insurance schemes. METHODS: In this population-based, panel data analysis, we used data from three waves of the nationally representative China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) for 2011, 2013, and 2015. We included participants aged 50 years and older in 2015, who had complete follow-up for the three waves. We used 11 physical non-communicable diseases to measure physical multimorbidity and annual per-capita household consumption spending as a proxy for socioeconomic status. FINDINGS: Of 17 708 participants in CHARLS, 11 817 were eligible for inclusion in our analysis. The median age of participants was 62 years (IQR 56-69) in 2015, and 5766 (48·8%) participants were male. 7320 (61·9%) eligible participants had physical multimorbidity in China in 2015. The prevalence of physical multimorbidity was increased with older age (odds ratio 2·93, 95% CI 2·71-3·15), among women (2·70, 2·04-3·57), within a higher socioeconomic group (for quartile 4 [highest group] 1·50, 1·24-1·82), and higher educational level (5·17, 3·02-8·83); however, physical multimorbidity was more common in poorer regions than in the more affluent regions. An additional chronic non-communicable disease was associated with an increase in the number of outpatient visits (incidence rate ratio 1·29, 95% CI 1·27-1·31), and number of days spent in hospital as an inpatient (1·38, 1·35-1·41). We saw similar effects in health service use of an additional chronic non-communicable disease in different socioeconomic groups and among those covered by different social health insurance programmes. Overall, physical multimorbidity was associated with a significantly increased likelihood of catastrophic health expenditure (for the overall population: odds ratio 1·29, 95% CI 1·26-1·32, adjusted for sociodemographic variables). The effect of physical multimorbidity on catastrophic health expenditures persisted even among the higher socioeconomic groups and across all health insurance programmes. INTERPRETATION: Concerted efforts are needed to reduce health inequalities that are due to physical multimorbidity, and its adverse economic effect in population groups in China. Social health insurance reforms must place emphasis on reducing out-of-pocket spending for patients with multimorbidity to provide greater financial risk protection. FUNDING: None.